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The ClearBridge Recession Risk Dashboard remains firmly in green expansionary territory; despite AI labor fears, supportive fiscal and monetary policy should power the U.S. economy and corporate earnings in 2026.
Structural tailwinds like decarbonization, network upgrades and climate-proofing, along with AI’s need for power, are fueling long-term capital expenditure cycles for infrastructure.
Structural market drivers remain, with technology surging on strong earnings, China recovering and India offering long term opportunities.
Structural growth factors such as advancements in technology, compelling relative valuations as well as a stable U.S. dollar enhance the attractiveness of emerging markets.
We continue to find value in high-quality companies temporarily out of favor in areas including materials, energy and financials as well as select industrial and IT names.
A favorable U.S. policy backdrop should support consumers and businesses, counteracting inflationary and trade risks to keep the current expansion intact.
Fiscal expansion from the federal budget and recent monetary easing offers stimulus, but durable results will depend on how effectively these policies translate into investment and productivity gains.
While the government shutdown has halted most economic data releases, our analysis of private data sources suggests a continuation of recent trends and a stable green signal for the Recession Risk Dashboard.
In markets, money is energy — and flow, not form, drives the cycle between fear and greed.
The labor market is in heightened focus as a sharp drop in immigration has contributed to slower but also lower churn employment growth, increasing the likelihood of modest interest rate cuts.
