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A favorable U.S. policy backdrop should support consumers and businesses, counteracting inflationary and trade risks to keep the current expansion intact.
Fiscal expansion from the federal budget and recent monetary easing offers stimulus, but durable results will depend on how effectively these policies translate into investment and productivity gains.
While the government shutdown has halted most economic data releases, our analysis of private data sources suggests a continuation of recent trends and a stable green signal for the Recession Risk Dashboard.
In markets, money is energy — and flow, not form, drives the cycle between fear and greed.
The labor market is in heightened focus as a sharp drop in immigration has contributed to slower but also lower churn employment growth, increasing the likelihood of modest interest rate cuts.
The Russell 2000’s top 10, 20, and 30 contributors have recently accounted for a historically high percentage of benchmark gains, creating a set of unique challenges for active small cap managers.
With clarity on tariffs emerging, a major source of macro and market uncertainty is waning. Combined with a tax and fiscal boost from new legislation, corporate animal spirits are poised to pick up.
U.S. stocks have significantly underperformed from a global perspective, even while the market trades at a record premium, highlighting the value of diversification and dividends.
Three macro pillars are unwinding simultaneously: the U.S.-led geopolitical order, globalization and decades of ultra-low interest rates.
While we are neutral on stocks near-term due to tariff uncertainty and valuations, multiple catalysts could drive an earnings acceleration in 2026 as current risks dissipate.
