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Lower Bond Yields to Add Tailwind for Infrastructure

Fourth Quarter 2025

Key Takeaways
  • Listed infrastructure trailed global equities in the fourth quarter, both delivering a more subdued end to a strong year of performance.
  • European utilities outpaced U.S. utilities, while renewables also performed well, benefiting from their growing relevance in the AI buildout and policy derisking.
  • We expect a continued constructive policy environment with rates maintaining a downward trajectory.  This in conjunction with a further AI-related capacity additions should continue to support infrastructure investments.
Market Overview

Listed infrastructure trailed global equities in the fourth quarter, both delivering a more subdued end to a strong year of performance. Despite two cuts in short-term rates in the U.S. in the quarter, rate-sensitive sectors were pressured by higher longer-term bond yields and a higher-for-longer sentiment more generally. Continuing a catch-up trade and further helped by improving regulation, European utilities outpaced U.S. utilities. Renewables also performed well, benefiting from their growing relevance in the AI buildout and policy derisking.

Underperforming sectors included natural gas utilities and energy infrastructure pipelines, communication towers and North American rails. Higher production and storage levels and weaker weather forecasts for natural gas kept prices lower most of the quarter, weighing on shares of natural gas utilities and pipeline stocks. Elevated interest rates and lower growth drove largely negative performance from communication tower stocks. North American rails remained in something of a holding pattern as we await a recovery in freight volumes.

On a regional basis, Western Europe was the top portfolio contributor for quarter, with U.K. electric utility SSE and Spanish electric utility Iberdrola the lead performers.

SSE is a diversified energy utility headquartered in Scotland. It is vertically integrated, operating over the entire supply chain in the U.K., with generation (including hydro, wind, combined cycle gas turbine), electricity networks, and retail businesses (primarily B2B). It is the U.K.’s largest renewable energy generator. SSE’s share price rose as funding risks diminished and concerns around the U.K. macroeconomic outlook eased.

Iberdrola is a multinational integrated electric utility company headquartered in Spain and engaged in energy networks, renewables and wholesale and retail operations. The company has expanded internationally with operations in the U.K. (via Scottish Power), the U.S. (via Avangrid), Brazil (via Neoenergia) and Mexico. Iberdrola delivered a solid capital markets day, with management raising guidance again at its third-quarter results.

U.S. electric utility OGE Energy and Spanish electric utility Redeia were the largest detractors.

OGE Energy operates the largest utility business in Oklahoma. Delays in the announcement of a data center deal weighed on shares during the quarter.

Redeia is engaged in the supply and transmission of electricity and is the sole high-voltage transmission agent and system operator in Spain. Negative sentiment surrounding a suboptimal outcome from the Spanish regulatory review for 2026–2031 weighed on Redeia’s share price.

Outlook

Inflection in electricity demand and solid earnings growth helped listed infrastructure performance in 2025, and this looks set to continue in 2026, with the added benefit of lower nominal bond yields.

Electric utilities, which make up the bulk of our portfolio, continue to benefit from several tailwinds: the energy transition, as poles and wires are built out to connect renewables to the grid and EV charging stations (all regulated expenditure for utilities and earning regulated returns); the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change impacts on electricity networks, which is driving resiliency spend; and growing electricity demand, particularly from AI data centers, but also from growing industrial demand. These tailwinds support a strong earnings backdrop and continued conviction in a balanced exposure to utilities.

Portfolio Highlights

We believe an absolute return, inflation-linked benchmark is the most appropriate primary measure against which to evaluate the long-term performance of our infrastructure strategies. The approach ensures the focus of portfolio construction remains on delivering consistent absolute real returns over the long term.

On an absolute basis, the Strategy saw positive contributions from eight of 10 sectors in which it was invested in the quarter, with electric and water utilities the top contributors and energy infrastructure and communications detractors.

Relative to the FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 and on a U.S. dollar basis, the Strategy outperformed in the fourth quarter, driven primarily by stock selection in the electric, water and gas utility sectors. A renewables overweight and communications underweight were also beneficial. Stock selection in the airports sector and a lack of ports holdings detracted.

On an individual stock basis, the top contributors to absolute returns in the quarter were SSE, Iberdrola, Italian electric utility Enel, U.S. electric utility NextEra Energy and U.S. renewables provider Clearway Energy. The main detractors were OGE Energy, Redeia, U.S. electric utility WEC Energy, Canadian gas utility Enbridge and U.S. communications tower operator Crown Castle.

During the quarter, we initiated positions in U.S. electric utilities Portland General Electric and Edison International, French electric utility Engie and Brazilian electric utility Axia Energia. We also exited our positions in Brazilian electric utility CPFL Energia, Crown Castle and WEC Energy.

Related Perspectives

2026 Infrastructure Market Outlook
We expect fiscal liquidity and dovish central bank policy in 2026 to pressure bond yields, which should support utilities and also drive growth on GDP-sensitive user-pays infrastructure.
Power Shift: Investing in the Grid of the Future
Portfolio Manager Shane Hurst discusses the main themes driving secular growth for listed infrastructure: decarbonization, network investment, AI and data growth, favorable public policy and attractive valuations versus unlisted infrastructure.
Infrastructure in the Rapidly Changing Policy Landscape
Accelerating policy-driven investment and AI-driven data center growth are unlocking a multi-decade growth opportunity for listed utilities globally.
Resilience with Upside in a Volatile Quarter
Global Infrastructure Income 2Q25: Listed infrastructure was resilient during the market volatility in April, strongly outperforming the broader market, and remained steady through May and June while equities recovered from the selloff.
Infrastructure Shines Amid Uncertainty, Remains Attractive
Positioned defensively amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and market volatility, infrastructure has room to run given still-attractive valuations.
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  • Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Copyright © 2025 ClearBridge Investments. All opinions and data included in this commentary are as of the publication date and are subject to change. The opinions and views expressed herein are of the author and may differ from other portfolio managers or the firm as a whole, and are not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. This information should not be used as the sole basis to make any investment decision. The statistics have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but the accuracy and completeness of this information cannot be guaranteed. Neither ClearBridge Investments, LLC  nor its information providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

  • Source: London Stock Exchange Group plc and its group undertakings (collectively, the “LSE Group”). © LSE Group 2026. FTSE Russell is a trading name of certain of the LSE Group companies. “Russell®” is a trade mark of the relevant LSE Group companies and is/are used by any other LSE Group company under license. All rights in the FTSE Russell indexes or data vest in the relevant LSE Group company which owns the index or the data. Neither LSE Group nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the indexes or data and no party may rely on any indexes or data contained in this communication. No further distribution of data from the LSE Group is permitted without the relevant LSE Group company’s express written consent. The LSE Group does not promote, sponsor or endorse the content of this communication.

  • All returns are in local currency unless otherwise indicated.

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